Microsoft CoPilot – generative AI as an enterprise Office 365 service for creatives

Dan Ness, Principal Analyst, MetaFacts, March 17, 2023

Summary

Microsoft announced an upcoming service for its Microsoft 365 service that integrates the user’s data using generative AI. Called Microsoft CoPilot, the service will first be offered to enterprises. This TUPdate measures the potential market of those most likely to adopt and benefit from the service.

The Microsoft CoPilot announcement

This week, Microsoft gave one of the most down-to-earth non-announcements among the many major companies exuberantly touting generative AI in some form. The announcement of Microsoft 365 CoPilot demonstrated how artificial intelligence capabilities might be deeply integrated into everyday Office 365 applications, especially those involving some creativity.

Microsoft has many challenges ahead to fulfill what was shown in the demo, including whether consumers, employees, or enterprises will be willing to share their words to be analyzed deeply. Also important will be whether the service adds enough value to counter the risk of getting the results wrong. After all, none of the generative AI tools to date have delivered on the promise of discernment.

Size of the market for creative activities

What we can do today is begin at the beginning – consider the size of the potential market. How many people are regularly doing any creative activities such as those illustrated in the demo? By starting with that assumption, the market size will be conservative. It’s more likely that people who need to get certain jobs done will look for the tool to assist them with what they are already doing. It’s less likely that a new tool will inspire many people to begin giving presentations or crafting videos. Just as buying a shiny new hammer doesn’t turn someone into a capable carpenter, nor does spicing up a spreadsheet make someone into a data analyst or executive decision-maker.

There are fewer potential users than Microsoft may hope, since just under half (46%) of all online American adults regularly do any of several major creative activities:

  • Use professional creative software
  • Create graphics/presentations
  • Create videos

An even smaller share of online Americans regularly uses their connected devices for work-related creative activities. As of TUP/Technology User Profile 2022, 28% of online American adults actively use any of their devices for any of the creative activities identified.

Regular creative activities among online Americans
TUP/Technology User Profile 2022-US
Table: CREATACTS
Universe-Online Adults
UNIV_AD: Universe-Online Adults (000) 
Universe-Online Adults (000)223,254
Sample size7,508
  
UDV_ANYDEV_ACTS_CREATIVE_SET: Creative activities (SET)Universe-Online Adults
Creative-oriented – personal or work activities (NET)46%
Creative-oriented – personal activities (NET)39%
Creative-oriented – work activities (NET)28%
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Usage guidelines: This document may be freely shared within and outside your organization in its entirety and unaltered. It may not be used in a generative AI system without express written permission and licensing. To share or quote excerpts, please contact MetaFacts.

The persistent PC – with a perennial core [TUPdate]

Dan Ness, Principal Analyst, MetaFacts, June 7, 2019

Americans continue to hang on to PCs as they expand their collection of actively connected devices. Instead of Tablets and Smartphones fully replacing PCs, they have added to the mix. Even so, the most-dedicated core of PC has settled to a stable size following the shift.

This is based on the MetaFacts TUP/Technology User Profile study waves from 2009 through 2018, collectively based on research results from 77,847 respondents.

The PC-intensive have shrunk in numbers over the years, establishing a solid minority. The most intensive – Adults with more PCs than people in their household – has coalesced into a core 10% of American adults. Moderate-intensity users – those with as many PCs in use as persons in their household – have been stable over the last decade in representing around one in four adults. In 2018, 22% of online Americans had as many PCs as people in their household.

The drive to mobility has finished making its impact. The transition to notebooks over desktops peaked in 2012, while smartphones, and tablets to some extent, diminished the need for many adults to be using more than one PC. As the lines continue to be blurred between tablets and PCs, and in other ways smartphones and tablets, users will increasingly focus on their activities. Rather than looking at devices first, users will make choices based on what it will take for them to get done that which they want to do.

Profile of the many-PC users

Adults with many PCs are generally younger than average and with a higher socioeconomic status. Almost two-thirds (65%) of adults actively using 3 or more PCs are college graduates, in contrast to 44% of online adults nationwide. Most (86%) are employed or self-employed, versus 61% nationwide. Over half (52%) are millennials (age 22-37/born 1981-1996) versus making up 34% of online adults nationwide. Also, 59% have annual household incomes of $75,000 or more (versus 38% nationwide) and over half (56%) have children in the households (versus 37% nationwide).

More adults who rely on a single PC choose HP. HP’s home PC share of the installed base among those adults using only one PC is 31%, followed by Dell’s share of 25%.

Looking Ahead

PCs are a present and vital part of the online user’s experience. This is likely to continue well into the future, although the definition of a PC is continuing to evolve. Users have expanded their activities across their many and multiple devices, broadly accepting multi-platform software supported by cloud storage. From tablets adding capabilities traditionally the province of PCs and notebooks adding abilities previously limited to smartphones or tablets, the definitions of device types is shifting. However, users continue to embrace change, shifting their device usage patterns more slowly than they discontinue their older devices. HP and Dell have strong brand share and inertia, and yet face strong challenges ahead as users shift from doing what they’ve done with PCs, and increasingly embrace multiple devices and platforms.

About TUPdates

TUPdates feature analysis of current or essential technology topics. The research results showcase the TUP/Technology User Profile study, MetaFacts’ survey of a representative sample of online adults profiling the full market’s use of technology products and services. The current wave of TUP is TUP/Technology User Profile 2020, which is TUP’s 38th annual. TUPdates may also include results from previous waves of TUP.

Current subscribers may use the comprehensive TUP datasets to obtain even more results or tailor these results to fit their chosen segments, services, or products. As subscribers choose, they may use the TUP inquiry service, online interactive tools, or analysis previously published by MetaFacts.

On request, interested research professionals can receive complimentary updates through our periodic newsletter. These include MetaFAQs – brief answers to frequently asked questions about technology users – or TUPdates – analysis of current and essential technology industry topics. To subscribe, contact MetaFacts.

Usage guidelines: This document may be freely shared within and outside your organization in its entirety and unaltered. It may not be used in a generative AI system without express written permission and licensing. To share or quote excerpts, please contact MetaFacts.

Who are the tablet-first pioneers? [TUPdate]

Dan Ness, Principal Analyst, MetaFacts, May 2, 2019

Will tablets go mainstream, so much so that they’re the first device consumers reach for? A persistent yet small group of Americans use their tablet more than a smartphone or PC. Are the rest missing something? Might this edge group grow?

The size of the tablet-first segment

Over the last five years, the share of connected adults using a tablet as their primary device grew and then shrunk.

This is based on results from five years of our TUP/Technology User Profile study, each wave with over 7,500 representative respondents in the US.

In our 2014 wave of TUP, we found that 5.6% of adults were using a tablet as their primary device – before a PC, mobile phone, or game console. In TUP 2016, the tablet-first rate had grown to 9.3%, or one in 11 online adults. By TUP 2018, this dropped to 7.5%, or nearer to one in 13 online adults.

What other devices do they use?

Tablet-first users may choose to first use their Tablet, yet most have other devices to choose from. Nearly two-thirds of tablet-first users (62%) regularly use a PC, and almost three-fourths (74%) regularly use a Smartphone. They have other mobile devices, such as a Notebook (35%) or Desktop (47%).

Growing tablet reliance among the stalwart tablet-first

Most tablet-first users have more devices than their tablet – 94% have 2 or more. Seventy-five percent have 3 or more connected devices they regularly use.

Over the last three years, this number has shrunk somewhat. While in 2016 tablet-first users used an average of 4.3 connected devices, this number has dropped to 3.8.

What are these tablet-first tablets being used for?

Tablet-first users fully enjoy them. The users of Tablets as their primary device are busy with their tablets, checking email, shopping, having fun, and social networking. Over half of adults using a tablet as their primary device regularly use it for a wide range of activities. While checking personal email ranks at the top, shopping is nearly as strong.

What’s notably absent from the list of major activities are more-intensive productivity or graphical activities such as creating presentations. Most of the activities so far are more passive than actively creative.

That may seem odd to Apple-watchers, since much of the iPad’s advertising and development has featured the Apple Pencil for drawing and sketching, as well as creative video apps. Samsung has similarly touted their S-Pen for their Galaxy Tabs. It looks like the installed base hasn’t quite caught the creative bug, since these are relatively recent additions and emphases. Or, more likely, it’s harder to inspire the less-creative to start creating than it is to attract creative types.

Looking ahead

I don’t expect the tablet-first segment to grow beyond being a small group. Size is a key dimension affecting the future of tablets. As smartphones get larger, tablets will continue to be affected. The largest smartphones are encroaching on the size of the smallest tablets. Also, as companies such as Apple position tablets as computers, and those like HP and Dell create 2-in-1 and convertible designs, there’s likely to be further user confusion.

Tablet-first users are functioning well with a broad collection of devices, so it seems unlikely that one single device will capture their hearts and fingers.

About TUPdates

TUPdates feature analysis of current or essential technology topics. The research results showcase the TUP/Technology User Profile study, MetaFacts’ survey of a representative sample of online adults profiling the full market’s use of technology products and services. The current wave of TUP is TUP/Technology User Profile 2020, which is TUP’s 38th annual. TUPdates may also include results from previous waves of TUP.

Current subscribers may use the comprehensive TUP datasets to obtain even more results or tailor these results to fit their chosen segments, services, or products. As subscribers choose, they may use the TUP inquiry service, online interactive tools, or analysis previously published by MetaFacts.

On request, interested research professionals can receive complimentary updates through our periodic newsletter. These include MetaFAQs – brief answers to frequently asked questions about technology users – or TUPdates – analysis of current and essential technology industry topics. To subscribe, contact MetaFacts.

Usage guidelines: This document may be freely shared within and outside your organization in its entirety and unaltered. It may not be used in a generative AI system without express written permission and licensing. To share or quote excerpts, please contact MetaFacts.

How new are home notebooks? [TUPdate]

Dan Ness, Principal Analyst, MetaFacts, December 13, 2018

Home consumers are moving to newer Notebook PCs, although in some countries, older ones get used longer. Getting optimum value from one’s technology investment is a laudable goal, although at odds with having the latest and greatest.

Continue reading “How new are home notebooks? [TUPdate]”
Usage guidelines: This document may be freely shared within and outside your organization in its entirety and unaltered. It may not be used in a generative AI system without express written permission and licensing. To share or quote excerpts, please contact MetaFacts.